All the elements were there........

All the elements  to expalin the support for Leave were there in the run up to the referendum. . See the entries in my blog in each case

The entry   "Tensions in the European Union."

Mr Donald Tusk, President of the EU Council of Ministers, sets out very clearly how the elite of Europe have left many electorates behind in pursuing the European idea. And the growing distrust of the elite on these grounds  (but the refugee crisis also played a large part ) has led to the growth of anti-EU votes in many countries, Brexit has brought this fact to the fore.

The entry  "Jefferson and harmony, and immigration "

At the same time the elite in the United Kingdom have specifically encouraged the acceptance of more refugees,  ignoring the fact that it is not their streets but the poorer streets of the country which see their culture  threatened.

The entry   "Who will vote for Remain and who for Leave"

The result of these considerations ( but see below)  is shown in this survey -  an  overwhelming support by the less well educated  - and therefore less affluent -  for quitting the EU. It is noticeable also from this survey that the other group supporting Leave is the section of the population that is aging, As one of my correspondents in Germany has said, these two groups have nothing to lose.

The entry  " Most politicians are the same  -  but some are dangerously not"
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People generally in all countries distrust politicians and all the elite. As a result the advice from nearly all expert opinion to vote Remain had if anything a contrary effect. This foolish attitude is the result of an apparent  transfer of responsibility - the problems facing the United Kingdom and many countries have no solutions, they can only be managed, and they run on  and on and on. The politicians are blamed for not delivering - but they cannot deliver, and it is not their fault.. Intelligent people who pay attention to the problems can see that, but many cannot. So even without the specific distrust of the elite on the grounds of EU ambition or immigration the referendum was an opportunity to register a protest against the world and against the elite who were ignoring them.

Conclusion

The majority for Leave was achieved by  a protest vote. Protest votes can be useful in many contexts in reminding our leaders of the views of ordinary people. - but not in a vote which has dramatic consequences . If the result had been decisive one could have said that there was a genuine view in favour of Leave as well as a protest. But as it is with such a narrow result the protest element can only be regarded as an invalid contribution to the victory of Leave. It is essential that the House of Commons uses its constitutional powers ( the referendum is not binding) to upset the referendum's conclusion. If the Commons were to use the vast majority it has for Remain to over ride the referendum result there would be cries of dissent. A second referendum would mostly avoid that reaction and might be the most democratic way to proceed. Staying with the results of the first referendum is on the other hand a corruption of democracy.